polymarket wallet intelligence · copy-trade research · data & backtest only
ANALYZING…
LOADING…

Skilled-wallet watchlist — trailing-window features, MM-filtered, EB-shrunk score

LOADING…
score = recency-weighted realized ROI, shrunk toward the population median (empirical Bayes, prior n from config). Flags: market_maker ≥2 of {maker-share, net/gross, holding-time} votes · low_n few resolved markets · conversion_heavy neg-risk conversions distort P&L. Click a row for the full dossier.

Copy-strategy equity — cumulative $ P&L (fixed $ per copy)

Delay × slippage sensitivity — total ROI

Skill persistence — Spearman ρ (train score vs next-month ROI)

Walk-forward months

P&L engine reconciliation vs Polymarket profile numbers

LOADING…
ours = realized + settled-at-resolution + open MTM + rewards/rebates, from raw activity replay. profile = user-pnl-api (the number on polymarket.com). Pass: |diff| ≤ 6% of |P&L| or ≤ 0.5% of trade volume (unmodeled sports fees — see NOTES.md).

Backfill coverage

Logged anomalies (nothing dropped silently)